Service Plays Tuesday 10/06/09

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

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[Can'tPickaWinner2]

MLB DUNKEL


Detroit at Minnesota
The Twins look to build on their 11-2 record in their last 13 games as a favorite. Minnesota is the pick (-155) according to Dunkel, which has the Twins favored by 2 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (-155). Here are all of today's picks.

TUESDAY, OCTOBER 6

Game 931-932: Detroit at Minnesota
Dunkel Ratings: Detroit (Porcello) 14.485; Minnesota (Baker) 16.883
Dunkel Line: Minnesota by 2 1/2; 7 1/2
Vegas Line: Minnesota (-155); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (-155); Under

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

MLB LONG SHEET

Tuesday, October 6

DETROIT (86 - 76) at MINNESOTA (86 - 76) - 5:07 PM
RICK PORCELLO (R) vs. SCOTT BAKER (R)
Top Trends for this game.
DETROIT is 160-164 (-31.9 Units) against the money line in all games over the last 2 seasons.
DETROIT is 35-46 (-11.7 Units) against the money line in road games this season.
DETROIT is 66-78 (-29.0 Units) against the money line against division opponents over the last 2 seasons.
DETROIT is 20-34 (-16.0 Units) against the money line in road games in day games over the last 2 seasons.
DETROIT is 105-122 (-37.0 Units) against the money line against right-handed starters over the last 2 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 174-151 (+10.2 Units) against the money line in all games over the last 2 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 101-61 (+22.1 Units) against the money line in home games over the last 2 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 19-6 (+13.5 Units) against the money line when playing on Tuesday this season.
MINNESOTA is 26-10 (+15.5 Units) against the money line when playing with a day off over the last 2 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 45-27 (+14.1 Units) against the money line against division opponents this season.
MINNESOTA is 104-65 (+22.1 Units) against the money line in games played in a dome over the last 2 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 106-70 (+19.1 Units) against the money line in games played on artificial turf over the last 2 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 58-44 (+8.9 Units) against the money line against right-handed starters this season.
MINNESOTA is 47-25 (+17.8 Units) against the money line in home games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
DETROIT is 38-30 (+7.7 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
MINNESOTA is 11-7 (+3.5 Units) against DETROIT this season
8 of 15 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL this season . (Over=+0.5 Units)

RICK PORCELLO vs. MINNESOTA since 1997
PORCELLO is 1-2 when starting against MINNESOTA with an ERA of 3.09 and a WHIP of 1.414.
His team's record is 1-3 (-2.3 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 4-0. (+4.0 units)

SCOTT BAKER vs. DETROIT since 1997
BAKER is 5-4 when starting against DETROIT with an ERA of 4.33 and a WHIP of 1.202.
His team's record is 8-8 (-1.3 units) in these starts. The OVER is 10-6. (+3.7 units)

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

MLB SHORT SHEET

Tuesday, October 6th

One Game Playoff for AL Central Title

DETROIT at MINNESOTA, 5:07 PM ET TBS
PORCELLO: DET 30-59 as road underdog
BAKER: MIN 23-7 after scoring 8+ runs

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

MLB ADDITIONAL

Tuesday, October 6

Trend Report

5:07 PM
DETROIT vs. MINNESOTA
Detroit is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Detroit's last 5 games on the road
Minnesota is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
Minnesota is 9-1 SU in its last 10 games at home

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NCAAF LONG SHEET

Week 6

Tuesday, October 6

MIDDLE TENN ST (3 - 1) at TROY (2 - 2) - 10/6/2009, 8:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
TROY is 2-0 against the spread versus MIDDLE TENN ST over the last 3 seasons
TROY is 2-0 straight up against MIDDLE TENN ST over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons


NCAAF SHORT SHEET

Week 6

Tuesday, 10/6/2009

MIDDLE TENN ST at TROY, 8:00 PM ET ESPN2
MIDDLE TENN ST: 11-1 Over off DD conference win
TROY: 7-0 ATS if they had 3+ turnovers last game


Trend Report

Tuesday, October 6

8:00 PM
MIDDLE TENNESSEE vs. TROY
Middle Tennessee is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
Middle Tennessee is 3-8 SU in its last 11 games on the road
Troy is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Troy's last 5 games at home

 

[mp5070]

juicemansports

Twin RUN LINE -1.5 +130 $400 to win $520 (4Units)
Twins -160 $480 to win $300 (4Units)

NHL:
Ottawa Senators +110 $200 to win $220 (2Units)
Minnesota Wild -125 $375 to win $300 ( 3units this looks super solid!!)

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Cappers Access

Twins
Troy

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Arthur Ralph Sports

334 - 224 run 59 % on free selections

Tues TROY -6

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

DCI
Season: 7-8 (.467)

Ottawa vs. TORONTO: TOO CLOSE TO CALL
Washington vs. PHILADELPHIA: TOO CLOSE TO CALL
CAROLINA 4, Tampa Bay 2
MINNESOTA 3, Anaheim 2
CALGARY 4, Montreal 3
Dallas vs. EDMONTON: TOO CLOSE TO CALL
San Jose vs. LOS ANGELES: TOO CLOSE TO CALL


DCI
Tuesday, October 6, 2009
Sun Belt Conference
TROY 27, Middle Tennessee 25

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Joe wiz Bonus Play

idaho(sat)

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NHL DUNKEL


Montreal at Calgary
The Flames look to take advantage of a Montreal team that is coming off a 2-1 win at Buffalo and is just 3-13 in its last 16 games after scoring 2 goals or less in the previous game. Calgary is the pick (-160) according to Dunkel, which has the Flames favored by 1/2 a goal. Dunkel Pick: Calgary (-160). Here are all of today's picks.

TUESDAY, OCTOBER 6

Game 1-2: Tampa Bay at Carolina
Dunkel Ratings: Tampa Bay 10.743; Carolina 10.490
Dunkel Line & Total: Tampa Bay by 1/2; 5 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Carolina (-165); 6
Dunkel Pick: Tampa Bay (+155); Under

Game 3-4: Ottawa at Toronto
Dunkel Ratings: Ottawa 11.616; Toronto 10.944
Dunkel Line & Total: Ottawa by 1/2; 6 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Toronto (-115); 6
Dunkel Pick: Ottawa (+105); Over

Game 5-6: Washington at Philadelphia
Dunkel Ratings: Washington 12.534; Philadelphia 13.366
Dunkel Line & Total: Philadelphia by 1; 6 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Philadelphia (-130); 6
Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (-130); Over

Game 7-8: Montreal at Calgary
Dunkel Ratings: Montreal 11.627; Calgary 12.281
Dunkel Line & Total: Calgary by 1/2; 5
Vegas Line & Total: Calgary (-160); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Calgary (-160); Under

Game 9-10: Anaheim at Minnesota
Dunkel Ratings: Anaheim 11.107; Minnesota 11.921
Dunkel Line & Total: Minnesota by 1; 5
Vegas Line & Total: Minnesota (-125); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (-125); Under

Game 11-12: Dallas at Edmonton
Dunkel Ratings: Dallas 11.539; Edmonton 10.654
Dunkel Line & Total: Dallas by 1; 6
Vegas Line & Total: Edmonton (-145); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Dallas (+135); Over

Game 13-14: San Jose at Los Angeles
Dunkel Ratings: San Jose 10.775; Los Angeles 11.685
Dunkel Line & Total: Los Angeles by 1; 5
Vegas Line & Total: San Jose (-155); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Los Angeles (+145); Under

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Mighty Quinn

Mighty missed with the Packers ( 4) Monday night.

Today it's the Twins. The surplus is 965 sirignanos.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Hondo

Hondo fell a little deeper into the abyss last night when the comeback by the Packers -- Larry Craig's favorite team -- stalled in Minnesota to raise the deficit to 1,340 killebrews.

Today, he's expecting the Twins to roll with Baker and collect a playoff payoff -- 10 units.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Scott Ferrall

NHL FREE PICKS FOR TUESDAY
PICKS ARE IN ALL CAPS AND RANKED IN ORDER OF CONFIDENCE ( )


Tampa Bay

CAROLINA -155 (1)


SAN JOSE -155 (2)

Los Angeles
10/6/2009

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

THE SPORTS ADVISORS

TUESDAY, OCTOBER 6

AMERICAN LEAGUE

Detroit (86-76) at Minnesota (86-76)

The final piece of baseball’s postseason puzzle will fall into place today at the Metrodome as the Twins host the Tigers in a one-game playoff with the winner claiming the A.L. Central title. Minnesota will hand the ball to Scott Baker (15-9, 4.36 ERA), while Detroit counters with rookie Rick Porcello (14-9, 4.04).

The Tigers had a seven-game lead on Minnesota back on Sept. 6 when it scored four runs in the top of the ninth to rally past the Rays 5-3 in Tampa. After that victory – which capped a six-game winning streak – Detroit went on to lose 15 of its last 26 games, going 5-7 on the road. However, facing a must-win situation Sunday against the White Sox, the Tigers jumped out to a 5-0 lead and held on 5-3 to force this one-game playoff.

The Twins caught Detroit by closing the regular season on a four-game winning streak, starting with Thursday’s 8-3 victory in Motown, followed by a three-game home sweep of the Royals. In addition to the current winning streak Minnesota won 16 of its final 20 games, including eight of its last nine at the Metrodome. During the 16-4 season-ending surge, the Twins went 4-3 against Detroit.

These squads split a four-game, three-day series in Detroit last week, and they’ve split the last 10 meetings, all since the beginning of August. The Twins ended up taking the season series 11-7, going 7-2 at home. Furthermore, going back more than 10 years, Minnesota is 61-28 against the Tigers at the Metrodome.

Detroit enters this contest in slumps of 1-5 against right-handed starters and 27-58 as a road underdog, but it is 5-1 in its last six playoff games as a pup. Minnesota, in addition to its 16-4 overall run, is on hot streaks of 6-1 as a favorite, 71-32 as a home chalk, 20-6 against right-handed starters, 12-3 after a victory, 21-7 against the A.L. Central, 20-7 on Tuesday and 28-11 after an off day. On the downside, the Twins have dropped 13 of their last 16 playoff games, including seven straight postseason contests in the Metrodome.

Porcello faced the Twins on Tuesday and held them to one run on seven hits over 6 1/3 innings getting a no-decision in Detroit’s 3-2, 10-inning home loss. In four starts against the Twins this year, the 20-year-old right-hander is 1-2 with a 3.09 ERA in 23 1/3 innings. He went 0-2 with a 6.30 ERA in the Metrodome this season, pitching just 10 innings.

Porcello is 4-1 with two no-decisions since Aug. 28, but the Tigers have alternated wins and losses in his last six outings. He’s 6-6 with a 4.20 ERA in 15 road starts, with the Tigers going 7-8, including 1-4 in the last five on the highway.

With the Twins staring at elimination, Baker faced the Tigers on Thursday and allowed one run (unearned) on five hits over five innings of an 8-3 road win. Baker also faced the Tigers at home on Sept. 20 and yielded four runs on eight hits in 4 2/3 innings of a 6-2 loss. For his career, the right-hander is 5-4 with a 4.33 ERA in 16 career starts versus Detroit covering 95 2/3 innings, including 1-1 with a 6.75 ERA in four starts (20 innings) this season. Baker is 6-5 with a 4.55 ERA in 16 home efforts this year.

With Baker on the mound, Minnesota is on runs of 8-2 overall, 6-1 at home (all as a favorite), 10-2 against A.L. Central foes, 20-7 as a favorite and 5-1 on Tuesday.

With Porcello pitching, the under is on runs of 4-1 as an underdog, 9-3 against A.L. Central rivals and 3-0-1 versus winning teams, and all four of his starts versus Minnesota this year stayed low. However, the over is 4-1 in Porcello’s last five road starts and 3-1-1 in his last five on Tuesday. Behind Baker, the Twins are on “under” streaks of 5-2-2 overall and 3-0-1 at home (all as a favorite), but the over is 17-6-1 in his last 24 starts against divisional foes, including 6-1 in his last seven versus Detroit.

As a team, the Tigers are on “over” stretches of 3-1-2 overall, 4-1 on the road, 8-2-1 after a victory, 4-1 against right-handed starters and 11-4-2 on Tuesday. The Twins carry “over” trends of 5-0-1 overall (all against A.L. Central foes), 3-1-1 at home and 6-2-2 on Tuesday. However, the under is 4-0-1 in the past five Tigers-Twins clashes in Minnesota.

ATS ADVANTAGE: MINNESOTA


COLLEGE FOOTBALL

Middle Tennessee St. (3-1 SU and ATS) at Troy (2-2 SU and ATS)

Middle Tennessee State shoots for its fourth consecutive SU and ATS victory when it travels to Troy, Ala., for a Sun Belt Conference clash with the Trojans at Movie Gallery Stadium.

The Blue Raiders got drubbed 37-14 at Clemson as an 18½-point road ‘dog to open their campaign, but they’ve since ridden a hot offense to three straight wins and covers over Memphis (31-14 at home), Maryland (32-31 on the road) and North Texas (37-21 on the road).

Troy began the season with a two ugly non-conference road losses, falling 31-14 at Bowling Green as a seven-point chalk and 56-6 to top-ranked Florida as a 36½-point ‘dog. However, the Trojans rebounded with a pair of Sun Belt victories over UAB (27-14 as a six-point home chalk) and Arkansas State (30-27 as a 2½-point road underdog).

Troy is on a 3-0 SU and ATS roll against the Blue Raiders, including a 31-17 rout as a six-point road chalk in last year’s season opener for both teams and a 45-7 thrashing as a 13-point home choice in 2007. The favorite has cashed in six of seven meetings this decade, with the visitor going 3-1 SU and ATS in the last four.

The SU winner is 7-0 ATS in Middle Tennessee’s last seven overall, 7-0 ATS in Troy’s last seven overall and 7-0 ATS in the last seven meetings in this rivalry.

The Blue Raiders are on ATS runs of 5-2 overall, 12-3 when playing in October, 4-1 after a SU win and 8-3-1 following a spread-cover, but they’re also in pointspread ruts of 2-8-1 in Sun Belt games, 0-4 after a bye week and 2-5 as a road pup.

The Trojans are on ATS surges of 7-3 at home, 4-1 in conference, 4-1 in October, 6-2 as a favorite of 3½ to 10 points, 13-5 after a SU victory and 4-0 after a bye.

Middle Tennessee carries nothing but “over” trends, including 5-1 overall, 4-0 on the highway, 6-0 as a road pup, 4-0 in October and 4-1 in Sun Belt action. Conversely, the under is 4-0 in Troy’s last four at home (all as a favorite), 5-1 in its last six as a chalk, 6-1-1 in its last eight in October and 8-0-1 in its last nine after a bye. Finally, the last four series clashes between these schools have stayed low.

ATS ADVANTAGE: TROY and UNDER

 

[brewerfan003]

randall the handle





TORONTO -½ +1.31 over Ottawa (REG) Pinnacle
I gave up three goals in the first — he had to try something," Vesa Toskala said of being pulled in the eventual 6-4 defeat to Washington. "I feel good (overall), but I have to help the team more." Of course he feels good. If I were making $3M a year I’d feel good too. Ron Wilson will not reveal who is in net tonight but my money says it won’t be Toskala and his .800 save percentage in two games. He’s a huge downer and the Maple Leafs need a lift. Toronto was supposed to be bigger, faster and a whole lot better this year and you know what, they are. This is a very decent team that is going to be tough to beat because of three rock-solid lines and a defense that is young but can move the puck and create chances. The Leafs are a lot more physical and they’re a lot more determined too. The Sens actually played a decent game on Saturday despite losing 5-2 to the Rangers. However, this team is going to have a lot of lousy nights this season. In fact, they just might be the most flawed team in the business. All aspects of the game, (goaltending, defense, depth, toughness and scoring) are all in question and as the Canucks showed us last night it’s going to be very difficult to win in this league when only one line is contributing. Leafs absolutely dominated the Canadiens on Thursday and they’re the much better team again tonight. Play: Toronto -½ +1.31 (Risking 2 units).

CALGARY -½ -1.06 over Montreal (REG) Pinnacle
The Habs are 2-0 not because of its strong play but because of the goaltending of Carey Price. In fact, in two games in Toronto and Buffalo the Habs were outshot 81-44. They’ve been badly outplayed in every single period and things aren’t going to get any better anytime soon. They’re not better than they were last season and in fact, all they really did was replace three guys that can rack up points (Tanguay, Kovalev and Soiku) with three other guys that can rack up points (Cammalleri, Gomez and Gionta). Hal Gill and Jaroslav Spacek on defense look about as mobile as two orange cones out there. So, while Spacek and Gill look like Abbot and Costello, the Flames will come out with Phanuef and Boumeester. It’s almost not fair. Calgary is loaded with a slew of talented and rugged D-men and if the Habs had trouble creating chances against Buffalo and Toronto, they might not get out of its own end tonight. Calgary is loaded offensively as well. Despite being a misleading 2-0, Montreal is outmatched here by a huge margin and no way do they fluke out three wins in a row. Get on this one early because you might be laying -½ -1.20 by game time. Play: Calgary -½ -1.06 (Risking 2.12 units to win 2).

Tampa Bay +1.35 over CAROLINA Pinnacle
The Canes made a huge run at the end of last season to grab a playoff spot and subsequently won two playoff rounds over New Jersey and Boston before getting clobbered by the Penguins in the third round. That was about as unlikely a run as any team has ever made and if you think that’ll carry over to this season, think again. The Canes did very little to improve and will still rely heavily on a bunch of players (Whitney, Brind’Amour, Scott Walker, Aaron Ward and Stephane Yelle) that are all 35 or older. Are you kidding me? They added nothing significant but lost Frantisek Kaberle and they also lost Erik Cole to an injury last game. Man, on paper this team looks bad indeed and they looked worse on the ice in Boston on Saturday night when they never had a chance. The Lightning lost also, 6-3 in Atlanta, but don’t put too much weight on that. Unlike the Canes, the Bolts have greatly improved with the additions of Mattias Ohlund, Alex Tanguay, and Kurtis Foster (although he’s out tonight). Throw in the talents of Vincent LeCavalier, Marty St. Louis, Steven Stamkos and you can instantly see that the Lightning are a much-better team. The second overall pick, Victor Hedman looks as good as advertised and he, too, makes the Bolts a better team. So, until the Canes show us something dramatically better than its two losses, I’ll play against them when they’re the chalk, end of story. Play: Tampa Bay +1.35 (Risking 2 units).

Washington +1.11 over PHILADELPHIA Pinnacle
Goaltending could be the only issue in Washington this season but they have the offense to compensate for the odd bad goal. Besides, it’s not like the Flyers are great in goal either and they, too, will see a number of soft goals and this is not the team to play when goaltending is questionable. What we all know is that the Caps are the greatest show on ice and can beat you in so many different ways. They went into Boston on opening night and it wasn’t close. They opened at home on Saturday against the Leafs and it was 3-0 before the popcorn had popped and it was 6-1 after two. This team is loaded and while they likely won’t go 82-0, they also won’t be a pooch more than about 8-10 times this season and when they are, I’m on it with no questions asked. The Flyers are also 2-0 but have played the Canes and Devils and will take a big step up in class tonight. More on the Flyers later because this one is all about taking back a tag on the Caps. Play Washington +1.11 (Risking 2 units).

 

[MysteryMan]

WAYNE ROOT

2009 Football Upset Club
Tuesday, October 06, 2009
3* Troy (-6½) over Middle Tennessee

 

[brewerfan003]

FantasySportsGametime

Tuesday MLB Plays



MLB Baseball

50* Play Minnesota (-165) over Detroit (MLB PLAY)

Minnesota has won 19 of the last 25 games when playing on a Tuesday and the have also won 26 of the last 36 games when playing with a day off. Minnesota has won 16 of the last 20 overall games and Scott Baker has won 24 of the last 31 games as a favorite of -125 to -175.

 

[Henryjames]

igz1 sports

Tuesday Update
Monday Recap: 1-0 NFL

MLB
4* Detroit +155 (Porcello)